Without tens of thousands of new immigrants, Mass. economy could see contraction, report says

Ask your Senator to support S. 1114 and S. 1124 for Clean Slate legislation because an old CORI should not mean a lifetime of blocked opportunities.

The slowdown in immigration, driven by the Trump administration’s aggressive restrictions, is creating a threat to Massachusetts due to immigrant households being “deeply woven” into the Bay State’s economy and the labor market, a new report says.

“If Massachusetts loses a large portion of its immigrant population, or these residents pull back from spending and public life out of fear or economic uncertainty, the effects will ripple well beyond immigrant communities,” said a report jointly released this morning by the research arm of the Boston Foundation and the MassINC Policy Center. “The Commonwealth could lose billions of dollars in economic activity each year.”

Foreign-born heads of households in Massachusetts contributed $7.4 billion in state and local taxes, and above $23 billion in federal taxes, the report said.

One-quarter of the state’s labor force is now made up of immigrants, who work in laboratories, universities and hospitals, the construction sector and the restaurant industry. The report cited a Massachusetts Senior Care Association estimate that puts 40% of nursing facility workers being foreign-born, About 2,000 workers are Haitians who hold the federal Temporary Protected Status (TPS). Zooming out, the researchers say their analysis points to Massachusetts needing 64,000 immigrants entering the state annually by 2030, leading to 29,000 workers who would keep the size of the working-age population stable.

Deportations have been “relatively small compared to the total labor force,” and some Trump administration policies have landed in front of federal judges, the report added. “But small changes can compound quickly, and the medium-term outlook is considerably more concerning.”

The immigrants who came in at a rapid pace between 2022 and 2024 created “short-term challenges” around housing and school capacity, the report acknowledged.

Immigration can hike costs but it’s “likely only responsible for a modest portion of the sharp housing cost increases Gateway City residents have endured in recent years.” (For example, home values spiked in Springfield and Revere between 2014 and 2024, but Springfield saw a decline in foreign-born people as Revere saw 50% growth.)

“The pressures that Gateway Cities have felt over the past few years may help explain part of the political backlash that emerged in 2024,” the report said. “Large numbers of voters in these communities supported President Trump, including in Fall River, where residents backed the Republican presidential candidate for the first time in a century.”

Without a “sound” immigration policy and assistance at the federal level, additional stress and uncertainty could “erode local support and make it more difficult for them to welcome newcomers in the future,” the report warned.

HAPPENING TODAY

9:00 | Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll joins House Speaker Ron Mariano and Mayor Tom Koch for Quincy District Court’s Law Day celebration. | 1 Dennis Ryan Parkway, Quincy

10:00 | Gov. Maura Healey offers remarks at the MIT Lincoln Laboratory’s distinguished lecture series. Economic Development Secretary Eric Paley, Veterans Services Secretary Dr. Eric Goralnick, and MIT Lincoln Laboratory Director Dr. Melissa Choi also attend. | 224 Wood St., Lexington

2:30 | Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and law enforcement officials speak at a press conference to highlight human trafficking prevention efforts ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. | Room 157, State House, Boston

9:00 | The Boston Foundation hosts a discussion on the release of a new report from Boston Indicators in partnership with the MassINC Policy Center examining immigrants' role in the regional economy. International migration and immigrant labor have traditionally played major roles in the economy and population growth here. Boston Foundation CEO Lee Pelton delivers opening remarks, followed by a research presentation. | Boston Foundation, 75 Arlington St., Boston | Register

9:30 | Boston Mayor Michelle Wu holds a press conference to detail the city's public safety preparations for a summer that features the World Cup, Sail Boston and other large-scale events. | 12 Channel St., 9th floor, Seaport

4:45 | Gov. Maura Healey makes a campaign stop with Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll with members of UNITE HERE Local 26. | Boston

6:00 | Gov. Maura Healey delivers remarks at IBEW Local 103's 79th annual graduation of apprentices, according to her campaign. | 256 Freeport St., Dorchester

6:30 | Attorney General Andrea Campbell receives the 2026 Leader of Change award at Trinity Boston Connects’ Bostonians for Youth gala. | Fairmont Copley Plaza, 138 St James Avenue, Boston

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AROUND TOWN: WU V. COLLINS, DIEHL’S NEW JOB AND MORE

In a move telegraphed for months, Mayor Michelle Wu formally endorsed one of South Boston Sen. Nick Collins’ Democratic primary challengers: Dorchester activist Latoya Gayle. Wu and Gayle touted the endorsement at Via Canuccia, a restaurant that’s a short walk from Gayle’s home. Gayle has received support from Team Wu, including a campaign manager who previously worked in Boston City Hall, as well as donations and the backing of unions that have worked closely with the mayor. It’s the first real challenge for Collins in years, though he maintains a significant fundraising advantage. As the Wu-Gayle event was getting underway, the Collins camp released a memo on an internal poll by the Sexton Group showing Collins getting 80% of the vote. Wu, who won most of Collins’ Senate district when she faced Josh Kraft in last year’s mayoral race, has earned a reputation as a relentless campaigner, and personally knocked on doors in 2023 to oust a city councilor, Ricardo Arroyo. She has repeatedly clashed with Collins over her property tax shift proposal, which was opposed by business groups. “We are tired of our state senate off-loading their elected power to unelected corporate interests to negotiate against Boston families,” Wu said Wednesday, according to the Dorchester Reporter. The newspaper has more here.

Geoff Diehl, the former GOP state lawmaker who ran for governor and U.S. Senate, has a new job in real estate. He has signed up with the Fine New England Living team at Coldwell Banker Realty. The company’s announcement steers clear of politics, aside from a passing mention to his “years in public service” and an apparent reference to his appointment to the Legislature’s Joint Committee on Housing while he was a legislator. Diehl, who went on to run against Maura Healey and Elizabeth Warren on top of a bid for state Senate, also appears to be avoiding politics online. His two main accounts on X, the site once known as Twitter, appear to have been deactivated, while he deleted political posts on his Facebook page, including one taking a caustic shot at GOP candidate for governor Brian Shortsleeve. Diehl had been active online supporting the other contender, Mike Minogue.

An internal poll in the race for the Massachusetts 6th Congressional seat shows it remains wide open as the six-person Democratic field barrels towards the Sept. 1 primary. The poll, which came from state Rep. Tram Nguyen’s camp, showed she has good name recognition alongside Dan Koh, the former Biden administration official making his second run for Congress. “Bolstered by name recognition, Tram Nguyen leads an initial, uninformed primary ballot vote with 28% of the vote,” a memo written by pollster Workbench Strategy said. “Her nearest challenger in the field is Dan Koh (18%), with other candidates receiving less than 10% of the vote. A quarter of voters (24%) are undecided.” The poll was conducted May 26 through May 27, among 400 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is 4.89 percentage points. It’s the latest internal poll in the scramble for the seat.

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FROM BEACON HILL

SIGNATURE ISSUE: Democrats are looking to disqualify two statewide GOP candidates from the ballot over signature problems. The state party is filing challenges over signatures gathered by Michael Walsh, who is running for attorney general, and Anne Manning Martin, a candidate for lieutenant governor. – State House News Service (gift link)

HOUSE RECORDS BILL: House Democrats passed a bill placing the governor under the state public records law and placing a definition on what the state auditor can review. Three Democrats voted against the measure, including Cambridge’s Mike Connolly and Fall River’s Alan Silvia. – GBH Newsand CommonWealth Beacon

NEWS NEXT DOOR

BOSTON BUDGET: Amid infighting, Boston city councilors pushed off a vote on Mayor Michelle Wu’s $4.9 billion operating budget, while approving a $1.7 billion budget for the school system and a bid to close gaps in this year’s budget. – WBUR and Boston Globe

PLYMOUTH LAND DEAL: Plymouth select board members are holding talks behind closed doors about a land deal that could benefit their friend and campaign manager. – Plymouth Independent

CITY HALL REINSTATEMENT: The Wu administration has reinstated Dauasia Yancey as LGBTQ+ deputy director. Yancey had been on unpaid leave after an arrest last year. – Boston Herald

VINEYARD WIND: A Suffolk Superior judge won’t lift a court order that stops GE Renewables from ending its contract with Vineyard Wind, the offshore project. – Cape Cod Times

How will Boston navigate federal policy challenges and economic woes in a time of political uncertainty? What are the challenges and opportunities facing Boston in 2026? Kicking off a blockbuster summer featuring the World Cup and America 250, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu joins MASSterList columnist Jon Keller for an in-person fireside chat at the MCLE Conference Center in Downtown Crossing. Register here.

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