A tale of two internal polls in the Mass. crowded 6th scramble

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Software engineer Bethany Andres-Beck is riding high in a new poll of candidates running to succeed Rep. Seth Moulton, according to a new poll commissioned by Bethany Andres-Beck. 

But wait: Another internal poll, released Monday, has fintech executive John Beccia in a “statistical tie” with former Biden administration official Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen, Beccia’s campaign said.

Neither camp would provide much on the polls beyond the memos. The biggest takeaway is probably that many voters in the northeastern Massachusetts congressional district remain undecided as candidates remain in the single or low double digits. “All of the polls agree on the same fact: the undecideds from each poll are the clear winner, even if by plurality,” said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos.

Public independent polls, like the ones Paleologos puts out, have been hard to come by amid the U.S. Senate battle between Moulton and incumbent Ed Markey and Moulton and it could stay that way for the foreseeable future, leaving close watchers to parse internal polls.

“When you look at a bunched-up group of candidates in the teens and high single digits, anyone can rightfully conclude that they are within the margin of error,” Paleologos said.

The internal polls also indicate something of a target. The campaigns used their respective poll results to each take swings at Koh, who is widely viewed as one of the top contenders for the seat due to raking in nearly $4 million and securing endorsements from a variety of groups and unions in his second try for Congress.

“We’re in the lead,” Andres-Beck said on Instagram over the weekend, in a post that featured the candidate smiling in full color next to a “14%” figure, while showing Koh’s expressionless face in black and white, a “9%” hovers to his right. The poll of 487 likely primary voters was conducted May 10 through May 15 by Center for Strategic Politics. 

Andres-Beck’s post notes that the numbers in the six-candidate field reflect the result “after candidate bios are read.” Tellingly, the campaign would not release what the numbers said “before candidate bios were read” or the poll’s toplines. 

The candidate bio for Andres-Beck, like the others, has a positive and negative section, but the latter might not be that negative, since it reiterated that they support AI regulation that could lead to the banning of ChatGPT. The Andres-Beck polling memo added that Beccia remains in “distant 6th place.” 

Following the Andres-Beck Instagram post, Beccia’s campaign decided to release a memo about a survey from back in March, conducted by Schoen Cooperman Research. Asked about how many were polled, the campaign said 450.

“This race is a statistical tie,” the Beccia polling memo said. “In the initial ballot test, John Beccia is a top contender within a crowded field of well-known Democratic candidates – narrowly trailing Tram Nguyen by only 3 points and tied with Dan Koh at 10%.”

The poll was conducted before Moulton aide Rick Jakious dropped out, and placed him at 3%. He suspended his campaign a month ago, citing a lack of fundraising.

Nguyen touted her 13% in Beccia’s poll. “This race is wide open, and our momentum just keeps building!” she said in a social media post.

In the Mass. 6th, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito seized on the Andres-Beck survey. “Yesterday, the first poll of the campaign was released and it showed us in first place,” said one of her campaign emails, pointing to the 14% percentage that Andres-Beck also had. But Belsito's campaign email also stripped out Andres-Beck’s name — yes, the person who commissioned the poll she was citing — as well as everybody else’s except Koh and Beccia.

The polls were entertaining, at least. Send along your takeaways, and your thoughts of the Mass. 6th so far: [email protected].

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9:00 | The Board of Elementary and Secondary Education meets. Commissioner Pedro Martinez will give an update on the K-12 Statewide Graduation Council. The council has a final report due to the governor and Legislature next month to recommend new statewide graduation standards. Also on the agenda is a discussion of education spending in the Senate Ways and Means Committee's fiscal 2027 budget. | Hudson High School , 69 Brigham St., Hudson | Agenda | Watch

10:00 | Senators meet in a formal session to begin deliberations on the Ways and Means Committee's $63.3 billion budget proposal for fiscal year 2027 (S 4). Senators filed 1,158 amendments, proposing to add at least another $1.47 billion to the budget. | Senate Chamber, State House, Boston

10:00 | The Board of Higher Education meets. Agenda includes remarks from chair Chris Gabrieli, Education Secretary Stephen Zrike, presidents, the commissioner and Student Advisory Council. | Design and Media Center Huntington Studio, 3rd Floor, Mass. College of Art and Design, 621 Huntington Avenue, Boston | Agenda | Zoom Access

11:00 | Boston Mayor Michelle Wu joins the Boston Fire Department and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute to announce a new partnership to support Boston firefighters. | Charles A. Bana Building, 44 Binney Street, Fenway 

1:00 | Gov. Maura Healey testifies in support of her economic development bill (H 5386) with Economic Development Secretary Eric Paley, Administration & Finance Secretary Matt Gorzkowicz, business leaders, entrepreneurs, CEOs, higher education leaders and others, according to her office. | Room A-1, State House, Boston

1:30 | GOP candidate for governor Brian Shortsleeve and lieutenant governor candidate Shawn Oliver unveil municipal relief plan that will increase local aid, ease pressure on property taxpayers and restore "fiscal balance" between the state and municipalities, the campaign said. | 799 Ashley Blvd., New Bedford 

….Gov. Maura Healey has until Tuesday to reappoint the Cannabis Control Commission under a recently enacted law overhauling the state’s marijuana regulations….

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The Democratic National Convention’s site selection committee continues its tour of Boston on Tuesday as it weighs host cities for the 2028 convention. After touring TD Garden on Monday, an evening reception was held at The View. Its location at the top of the Prudential Tower offers 360 degree views of the city from more than 50 floors up. The reception’s 75-person guest list included Gov. Maura Healey, Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Boston 2028 chief Steve Kerrigan, and local philanthropic leaders. To provide a New England flavor to Boston’s bid, the chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, and the executive directors of the Democratic Party in Rhode Island and Maine were also slated to be in attendance.

The union-backed ballot campaign pushing for the return of rent control, “Keep Massachusetts Home,” has launched its first set of ads. Its 30-second ad has a Mattapan senior, Annie Gordon, criticizing “corporate landlords” and touting a 5% rent cap as helpful, while two 15-secondads have SEIU Local 509 member Noel Lozada and Arlington senior Laura Frost. The ads are airing on digital, some TV and social media. The ads come after opponents launched their own TV ad on May 8. The business-backed “Housing for Massachusetts” group’s ad, “The Facts,” said the ballot question would impose a rent “mandate” on cities and towns, decreasing supply and worsening the housing crisis.

RETAILERS POLL: A new survey shows 53% of Massachusetts voters believe Beacon Hill leaders aren’t helping with the state’s affordability problems. Additionally just 36% say they believe the state is headed in the right direction, down from 59% three years ago, according to the poll, which was conducted for the Retailers Association of Massachusetts. – MassLive

EVICTION SEALING: The eviction sealing law that was included as a provision in the 2024 Affordable Homes Act suffers from low recognition, as just 6,284 petitions for sealing cases have been filed since the law took effect a year ago. – CommonWealth Beacon

INSURANCE LIMIT: The state’s Division of Insurance issued guidance calling for health insurance companies to limit patient cost-sharing increases to 3.6% in the merged market, down from 4.8%. The guidance goes into effect January 2027. – State House News Service

CITY HALL-STATE HOUSE CLASH: The Healey administration is looking to shut down a city-owned section of Summer Street to traffic during World Cup matches, but a Wu administration spokesperson called the effort “inappropriate.” – Boston Herald

QUINCY PAY: The repeal of a hike in salaries for Quincy’s mayor and councilors was a hot topic at the council meeting last night, marked by tense exchanges with the city solicitor. The raises were set to take effect in 2025 until the state ethics commission raised concerns. Jim Timmins, the solicitor, said Quincy Mayor Tom Koch has not violated state ethics law because he and other councilors opted to defer or donate the pay hike. – NBC10 Boston

POPULATION SHIFT: While Census data showed Boston losing just over 1,300 residents last year, it appears Everett and Worcester, along with Cambridge and Newton, picked up population. – Boston Business Journal

BOSTON BUDGET DEFICIT: Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is looking to use the city’s reserves to plug a budget deficit for the fiscal year that’s about to end, a move that requires City Council approval. The deficit includes $47.1 million in the operating budget, and $22.8 million in the school system. – WBUR

STRUGGLING FARMS: Owners of small Massachusetts farms say they face labor shortages and immigration fears that are making it harder for them to do business. The rising prices of fertilizer and equipment aren’t helping. – GBH News

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Massport to launch first-in-nation remote terminal in June

Override’s failure could mean 40 school educators out in Easthampton

Median home price in Boston area hits $1 million, again

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