Will Massachusetts voters come out in force today and send incumbents packing?

Oregon’s state primary turnout this year hit a historic high of 42%. Other states like Wisconsin and Michigan, saw their Democratic primary turnout surge, buoyed by competitive races. 

In Massachusetts today, no one’s counting on record-breaking numbers. Instead it’s all about which incumbents will be ushered out with an abrupt record scratch. 

Elections chief Bill Galvin is projecting around 800,000 Democratic ballots and around 280,000 Republican ballots will be cast, working out to a total turnout in the neighborhood of 21%. It’s an increase in raw numbers from four years ago, but a nearly equivalent percentage. Voter turnout already passed 10%, with the latest figures from Galvin's office showing 90,909 Republican ballots and 464,616 Democratic ballots already cast. 

“The emphasis this year would seem to be federal in its orientation,” Galvin told reporters last week, a characteristically dry description that might match some voters’ excitement level. 

The day’s marquee race, between Democrats Sen. Ed Markey and Congressman Seth Moulton, is one of just two statewide primaries. In the other, Republican voters will decide whether to put up Mike Minogue or Brian Shortsleeve against Gov. Maura Healey in November. 

Voters in Moulton’s Sixth District will pick a Democratic nominee to succeed him, and incumbent Democrats face challenges in five other congressional districts. 

On Beacon Hill, it’s a quieter day. Just 26 sitting state lawmakers, 25 of them Democrats, are running for reelection against primary opponents. But that doesn’t mean it’s a relaxed atmosphere. 

"I worry about everybody," House Speaker Ron Mariano said in July. "It's a very strange, very strange year. We have progressives running against more progressives. ... So we don't have the typical alignments that you'd get in a political year." 

Data from the government relations company Multistate show incumbent legislators losing primaries at a bit of an elevated rate this year (2.7%, compared to a 2.1% average). But a caveat may comfort those 25 Democratic lawmakers here: the increase is concentrated on the Republican side.

Will Massachusetts go the way of Wyoming, where 15% of incumbents were booted out, or Florida, Washington, Nebraska, Ohio and Alaska, where no incumbents lost?

Other questions hanging over the day: Will Republicans Anne Brensley and Anne Manning Martin get the votes they need as write-in candidates for secretary of state and lieutenant governor, respectively, to make it on the November ballot? Will Boston Mayor Michelle Wu’s support help a pair of Senate hopefuls, Daniel Lander and Latoya Gayle, oust Sens. Will Brownsberger and Nick Collins — or will endorsements from Gov. Maura Healey help those and other incumbents hang on? Will former Suffolk District Attorney Rachael Rollins take back her old seat? 

And, bigger picture, do Massachusetts voters think the primary system is working for them, as-is? Question 3 this fall would throw out the party primary structure, instead putting all candidates on one primary ballot. 

Galvin said voters seem to have questions about the ballot initiative, including whether it’s ultimately “more attractive” than the existing system. But, he said, “I don’t think anybody’s terribly satisfied with what we currently have.” 

One more thing to think about as you bubble in (or not) your ballot. 

I’ll be up late tonight (and up early tomorrow) as it all unfolds. Tell me what you’re seeing — upsets, runaway wins, squeakers, irregularities, peculiarities, inspiring victory speeches, begrudging concessions, which polling places have the best “I Voted” stickers, which watch parties have the best snacks … or whatever else: [email protected]

7:00 | Polls open across the state for Election Day voting in the 2026 state primaries. Polling locations close at 8 p.m. | Find your polling place

7:00 | Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Deaton casts his ballot | Nashoba Regional High School, 12 Green Rd., Bolton

9:30 | Secretary of State William Galvin casts his vote in the state primaries. After voting, Galvin will take questions related to the primaries | Thomas A. Edison Middle School at 60 Glenmont Road, Brighton

11:30 | Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Shortsleeve votes in the state primary election. Shortsleeve, who is facing Mike Minogue in the primary, will take questions from the media after voting | Osterville Fire Station at 999 Main St., Osterville

3:00 | Massachusetts Commission for the Blind holds a public hearing on its proposed Comprehensive Annual Independent Living Social Services Plan for fiscal 2027 | Livestream

6:00 Department of Energy Resources holds a virtual public hearing on proposed regulatory changes to the Massachusetts Offers Rebates for Electric Vehicles (MOR-EV) program | More Info and Register

PARTY POLITICS: A who's-where of election watch parties ... Gov. Healey and Lt. Gov. Driscoll host at IBEW 103 in Dorchester; in the race for GOP gubernatorial nominee, Mike Minogue is at Great American Beer Hall in Medford while Brian Shortsleeve is at the Sheraton Boston; Sen. Ed Markey has the Omni Parker House's rooftop ballroom and challenger Congressman Seth Moulton is in Dorchester at Plumbers & Gasfitters UA Local 12; in the Sixth Congressional District, John Beccia's party is at his campaign HQ at Inc.Ubate Coworking in Lynn, Jamie Belsito gathers supporters at Bonefish Harry's in Beverly, Dan Koh is at Salem’s Hawthorne Hotel while Rep. Tram Nguyen is a short walk away at Rockafellas, and Republican candidate Micah Jones will watch from Culpeppers Pub & Grill in North Andover as he learns which Democrat he'll go up against in November.

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HEALEY REACTS: Gov. Healey said she hasn't seen the full slate of federal fraud charges against state Rep. Francisco Paulino, a Methuen Democrat, but what she's learned so far is "very disturbing." | State House News Service (gift link)

PLANTING THE FLAG: After last year's historic decline in opioid-related deaths, state leaders placed 20,000 flags on Boston Common to mark the lives lost to opioid overdoses in the past decade and pledged to keep expanding addiction prevention and treatment options. | Eagle-Tribune

NETFLIX AND BILL: Some public access media stations have been advocating for legislation that would help fund their operations through a new assessment on streaming services, as cable subscriptions — and the revenue from them — drop. | Greenfield Recorder

SISTER ACT: Tara Healey, the governor's sister and longtime political adviser, snapped a selfie with GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Minogue at a weekend campaign event, showing up in the series of photos he posted. Gov. Healey's campaign says Tara Healey went to ask Minogue his view on ICE actions in Newburyport and was clear about who she was. | Boston Globe

CLOSING ARGUMENTS: The candidates in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and the Republican primary for governor spent Monday making their final pitches to voters. | CBS Boston

TOWER OVER: A proposed 26-story apartment building in Davis Square is dead. The developer blames the city, saying large-scale housing isn't possible in Somerville, which Mayor Jake Wilson calls laughable. The owner of The Burren, the popular Irish pub on the site of the planned high-rise, says he's not surprised. | WBUR

TEARDOWN PLANS: MassDOT is making demolition plans for the homes the state seized by eminent domain in the path of the new Sagamore Bridge. Transportation officials say the move was spurred by some break-ins. | CAI

PLYMOUTH BLOCK: Plymouth officials plan to hold a public hearing on a one-year data center moratorium before the idea would go before voters at a fall Town Meeting. | Patriot-Ledger

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