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If the vibes feel a little weird this election, it’s not just you.
Secretary of State Bill Galvin, who typically steps into the role of election-eve oracle by serving up a turnout forecast, said Monday he didn’t have hard numbers to offer thanks to conflicting data points.
There’s been a “dramatic increase” in in-person early voting this year, he said, but the number of people looking up information on where they vote is "significantly down.”
Big-picture, Galvin sees today's election as "a referendum on the economy, the direction of our nation, and in fact the direction of the world," with heated contests in places like Maine and New Hampshire. But zoom in, and statewide and congressional races here lack that same intensity, while a mountain of ballot questions indicate "a certain frustration with accomplishment when it comes to government."
"Now, the national atmosphere is intensified, but are voters thinking in other directions?" Galvin said. "Are they frustrated? I don't know. I wish I could say, 'This is the number and that's what's going to be.' I can't be that confident."
Statewide turnout hit 51% in the last midterm elections, and 60% in 2018. As of Tuesday morning, 22.3% of Massachusetts voters had their say, with 821,244 ballots cast by mail and 347,346 in-person early votes.
Where turnout ultimately lands, and what’s motivating voters, is one storyline to watch tonight. A few others:
The midterms’ Massachusetts angle: A blue wave could mean a rising tide for Democratic incumbents poised for influential spots if they’re reelected. U.S. Rep. Katherine Clark could become the first woman to serve as House majority leader, and Reps. Jim McGovern and Richard Neal would be in position to reclaim the gavels as chairs of the powerful House Rules and Ways and Means Committees. Rep. Lori Trahan, who's trying to get a bipartisan AI bill passed, said at a Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce event last month that the election results could determine how productive the rest of this congressional session is. "There's been a lot of tumultuous talk in the Republican conference that if they do lose or they do lose big, that they might be looking for different leadership, and that is a factor in how we approach the lame-duck," she said.
How late it goes: One measure of the strength of Mike Minogue’s candidacy for governor is how long it takes before a winner is called. When Gov. Maura Healey won her first term in 2022, the Associated Press called her race against Geoff Diehl almost immediately after polls closed.
The Legislature’s homework: With most state legislative races uncontested, expect sitting reps and senators to be closely watching ballot question results. It’s a source of strife for legislators when citizens take lawmaking powers into their own hands, often to advance policies the House and Senate have opted to keep on ice. The Legislature does have the ability to rewrite (or ignore, when they choose to) laws passed at the ballot, and is primed to step in on two in particular, if they pass. Bills kicking around in conference committees would change the path for the public records expansion in Question 1 and the tax-rebate formula change in Question 5. Auditor Diana DiZoglio, whose 2024 audit-the-Legislature ballot question became a rallying cry for Republican candidates and anyone else frustrated with Beacon Hill, has said she’s eyeing another legal battle if lawmakers do narrow the scope of the public records measure.
Nationally or hyperlocally, what are you keeping an eye on tonight? Let me know what you’re seeing and hearing at [email protected].
HAPPENING TODAY
7:00 | Polls open for Massachusetts voters to choose a governor and lieutenant governor, U.S. senator, members of Congress, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer and an auditor, and decide nine statewide policy questions. Governor's Council members, state senators and representatives, district attorneys, and registers of probate are also on the ballot. Some counties also elect commissioners and treasurers, Franklin County voters fill a vacancy for sheriff, and local races vary by community. Polls close at 8 p.m. | More Info
8:30 | Boston Mayor Wu votes | Phineas Bates Elementary School, 246 Beech St., Roslindale
9:00 | Gov. Healey and First Lady Lydgate vote | Hardy Elementary School, 52 Lake St., Arlington
9:30 | Secretary of State Galvin casts his ballot and will be available outside the polling place after to answer media questions relating to the election and provide updates | Thomas A. Edison Middle School, 60 Glenmont Rd., Brighton
11:00 | U.S. Sen. Markey votes | Irish American Club, 177 West St., Malden
12:00 | In an Election Day tradition, Boston elected officials and other Democratic pols including Gov. Healey have lunch at Santarpios | 111 Chelsea St., East Boston
6:00 | Micah Jones, Republican nominee in the 6th Congressional District, holds an election night party | Riverbend Restaurant Essex, 35 Dodge St., Essex
7:00 | Republican gubernatorial nominee Mike Minogue holds his election night party with supporters and volunteers | Boston Marriott Burlington, One Burlington Mall Rd., Burlington | Register
7:30 | Yes on 9 For a Safe Massachusetts, the group that wants to uphold the state’s 2024 gun law, holds an election night party | Singleton Room in Fairmont Copley Plaza at 138 St. James Ave., Boston
8:00 | U.S. Rep. McGovern joins supporters at an election night party | 2 Mercantile St., Worcester
8:00 | U.S. Senate hopeful John Deaton holds an election night event at Union Brewhouse | 550 Washington St., Weymouth
8:00 | Yes on 6 campaign, which is looking to divert part of sales tax revenues from sporting goods toward land and water conservation initiatives, holds an election night party | Fairmont Copley Plaza, Copley Room, 138 St. James Ave., Boston
8:00 | Yes on 3 campaign that's pushing for all-party primaries holds a party | Mighty Squirrel Taproom, 1 David Ortiz Drive, Fenway
8:20 | Gov. Healey, Lt. Gov. Driscoll, U.S. Sen. Ed Markey, U.S. Rep. Pressley, Attorney General Campbell and Treasurer Goldberg — all Democrats seeking reelection — join MassDems Chair Steve Kerrigan for an election night party | Fairmont Copley Plaza at 138 St. James Ave., Boston | Media RSVP
JOB BOARD
Program Officer for Science, Engineering, and Technology — NEW, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Senior Transportation Engineer, City of Newton
Chief Economic Development Officer, City of Chelsea
Commission Counsel, Massachusetts Commission Against Discrimination
Individual and Corporate Giving Manager, Jamaica Plain Neighborhood Development Corporation
Legislative Director, Massachusetts AFL-CIO
Litigation Attorney, Disability Law Center
Director, Regulatory Affairs, Massachusetts League of Community Health Centers
Director of Public Policy, Massachusetts Housing & Shelter Alliance
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ON BEACON HILL
POLL WATCHING: Secretary of State Bill Galvin doesn't expect Trump administration interference in the Massachusetts election and says "self-appointed vigilantes" should also stay out of voters' way. | Axios Boston
SCHOOL FUNDRAISERS: The Massachusetts Teachers Union and Brookline Educators Union filed a federal lawsuit seeking to lift a state law that blocks public employees from soliciting donations from their colleagues for union-affiliated PACs, arguing the restriction criminalizes speech. | Eagle-Tribune
ARREST TEST: A key piece of the state immigration enforcement law known as the PROTECT Act — the section that bars federal agents from making warrantless civil immigration arrests in state courthouses — takes effect today. It's a protection one legal expert calls more symbolic than real. | New Bedford Light
NEWS NEXT DOOR
LAST WORDS: Final pitches in the U.S. Senate race focus on affordability, with incumbent Democrat Ed Markey also citing a fed-up electorate and John Deaton, his GOP challenger, saying there will be a “big surprise” if everyone who wants more balance in Massachusetts politics turns out to vote. | WHDH
ICED OUT: A report from the U.S. House Judiciary Committee calls Boston an example of "Democrats' efforts to erase national borders and undermine immigration enforcement," with the city's police ignoring every 2026 detainer request from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Mayor Wu’s office calls it an empty attack from Republicans "on the cusp of losing their majority." | Boston Herald
ADMIT IT: A federal judge dismissed a Trump administration lawsuit against Harvard seeking data from individual students applying for admission. | Harvard Crimson
UNPLANNED LAYOVER: State Police opened an internal affairs investigation and troopers are now reportedly required to activate their body cameras when conducting security sweeps at Logan Airport terminals, after an October incident where a passenger was left overnight in a restricted area. | CBS Boston
GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTEN: Seven years after Newbury College in Brookline closed and four years after it dissolved as a nonprofit, at least 21 former students face lawsuits over tuition debts. | GBH News
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JOB BOARD
District-Based Communications Professional, US House of Representatives
Senior Government Relations Specialist, ACLU of Massachusetts
Director of Sustainable Materials Management, City of Newton
Attorney, Prisoners’ Legal Services of MA
Engineering Project Manager, City of Newton
Legal Advocate, Mental Health Legal Advisors Committee
Advocacy Director, Mental Health Legal Advisors Committee
Director of Workforce Development, St. Francis House
Evaluation and Monitoring Associate, Massachusetts Legal Assistance Corporation
Administrative and Program Associate, League of Women Voters of Massachusetts
General Counsel/Chief Legal Officer, Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education
Account Director/Senior Account Director, Issues Management Group, Inc.
Director of Resource Development, The Neighborhood Developers
Director of Human Resources, SEIU Local 509
Deputy Sewer Director, Town of Nantucket
