Taking the independents' temperature

They’re the Holy Grail of Massachusetts politics — those 3.4 million, mostly moderate-to-conservative independents, 67% of the electorate and thus in charge of most election outcomes. They lean Democratic, but vote for acceptable Republicans often enough to avoid being taken for granted. And they don’t like ideologues and partisanship; that’s why they registered unenrolled in the first place.

For any Republican to have a sno-cone’s chance in Hull of winning statewide, they have to win the independent vote — big. A clean sweep of all eleven Republicans plus a few right-wing Dems isn’t going to cut it. 

So what does last week’s ever-reliable Suffolk/Globe poll tell us about indie temperature? That the wide leads held by every Democrat running statewide suggest a blown opportunity by the Massachusetts GOP.

Independents are considerably less thrilled about Gov. Maura Healey than the electorate overall. They favor her over Mike Minogue by just six points compared with her 23-point spread among all voters. Math-whiz fact check: that’s a stunning 17–point discrepancy. 

Why? Asked if Healey’s first term performance has been better or worse than they expected, the unenrolled were five points more likely than the voters at large to say it’s been worse, six points less likely to say it’s been better. And they are more bummed than the average Masshole with the way things are, seven points more likely to characterize the state of the state as getting a little or significantly worse, five points more likely than the overall electorate to say taxes are too high. They share the overwhelmingly widespread conviction that the country is headed in the wrong direction. 

The independents are also not especially enthused with most of the constitutional officers. Their support for Healey, Attorney General Andrea Campbell, State Treasurer Deborah Goldberg and even state Auditor Diana “Joan of Arc” DiZoglio lags behind the overall polling by a spread outside the margin of error. (Exception to the rule: Secretary of State Bill Galvin, whose across-the-board popularity will make a good subject for a future column.)

Could any of their GOP challengers have a shot at winning if not for the massive orange anvil around their necks?

Jon Keller is a MASSterList columnist. He can be reached at [email protected].

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10:00 | Gov. Healey, Lt. Gov. Driscoll and Senate President Spilka tour a nursing class and lab space at MassBay Community College’s Framingham campus before participating in a roundtable discussion with college leadership and students about the positive impacts of free community college | Center for Health Sciences, Early Childhood, MassBay Community College, 490 Franklin St., Framingham

10:00 | Boston Mayor Wu hosts press conference to highlight street lighting upgrades across Boston | Codman Square Park, 360 Talbot Avenue

11:00 | Senate meets in informal session | Senate Chamber

11:00 | House meets in informal session | House Chamber

2:30 | Reception for Marcia Kimm-Jackson, an artist in residence at Embrace, who is hosting a Living Histories of Color exhibit on the fourth floor of the State House, including work from "trailblazers and history making contributors in the Greater Boston Area." Exhibit runs through Friday | 4th Floor, State House

4:00 | Senate President Spilka speaks at ribbon cutting for replacement of the historic Henry E. Warren Barn, a new gathering space that’s part of Framingham State University’s Warren Conference Center | 529 Chestnut St., Ashland

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