Refund, anyone? Question 5 campaigns try to stay out of the weeds as voters (and lawmakers) make up their minds

On a clear October afternoon, with the sun bouncing off yellow and orange leaves, the Raise Up Massachusetts coalition posted a "Rainy Day Advisory" to Instagram. 

The coalition's post cautions of a "higher risk of major budget cuts during economic downturns," warning of the potential for cuts at public colleges, MassHealth and job training programs during recessions. 

A few days earlier, the Taxpayers for an Affordable Massachusetts committee posted an image on Facebook of cartoon coins sliding into the outline of a pocket. The caption makes a comparison: "When you hand a cashier $20 for a $17 charge, you expect to get $3 back in change. Why should government collections work any differently?"

The last time taxes were on the ballot, in 2022, the campaigns for and against the millionaire's tax question spent a staggering $43.5 million on efforts to persuade voters. 

Beacon Hill had been bracing for another blockbuster ballot battle among unions, business groups, lawmakers and other interested parties. Instead, the Supreme Judicial Court tossed this year’s marquee tax question off the ballot, turning what had been the tax-relief undercard into the main event.

The disqualified question was simple (though opponents argued its consequences would be severe), asking voters if they’d like to cut their income tax rate from 5% to 4%. It polled high, and top lawmakers expected it to pass, eventually slicing billions of dollars out of state revenue collections, because, as House Speaker Ron Mariano once put it, “there aren't many people out there that're going to go to the polls and ... not vote to give themselves a tax cut.” 

Days out from Election Day, the prospects of the surviving measure aren’t quite as clear-cut. 

Designed to revise a rarely triggered law and generate more frequent rebates for taxpayers, Question 5 presents voters with the much wonkier choice of if they want to “change the limit on state revenue collection, tying it to prior year collections plus average wage and salary growth, and provide for a rebate of revenue exceeding that limit.”

It’s no wonder the campaigns are opting for social media-friendly metaphors instead of pulling the words directly from the ballot. They’re also spending at a relatively subdued rate so far compared to some of the other ballot questions — with a total of $1.24 million expended for and against, Question 5 ranks as the sixth spendiest of the nine ballot questions at this point. 

By and large, the arguments are almost the same as they were for the income tax cut — on the one hand, that residents navigating an affordability crisis deserve direct relief while state spending climbs, and on the other, that diverting money from the state’s coffers would constrain public programs that offer broader benefits than the savings for any individual household. 

A recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll suggests voters are still working through it, with 40% saying they'd vote yes, 38% no, and 20% undecided. 

Also undecided: whether the Legislature will ultimately complicate the refunds issue further (and if they’ll do so in the next six days). A Senate-approved measure tied up in economic development bill talks would also add new limits on when the tax refunds get triggered. 

What’s your take on Question 5 and how it will fare? Send me your thoughts at [email protected].

9:00 | Undersecretary of Business Strategies Zenobia Moochhala is the featured speaker at an event hosted by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce's Women's Network | John Hancock, 200 Berkeley St., Boston | Register

10:00 | Lt. Gov. Driscoll and Veterans Services Secretary Goralnick join employers, veteran community leaders and former service members pursuing civilian careers to announce new progress in the state’s efforts to recruit, support and retain veteran talent in Massachusetts’ workforce | UMass Boston, Campus Center (Ballroom One, Section C), 100 Morrissey Blvd., Boston

10:30 | Gov. Healey visits the Attleboro Council on Aging to talk about steps to deliver energy bill relief this winter | 25 South Main St., Attleboro

10:30 | Reps. Donaghue, Gregoire, Lewis and Sousa join Citizens Energy Corporation President Joseph Kennedy III, Housing Undersecretary Chris Kluchman and community action agency officials for a briefing on the state's Home Energy Assistance Program | South Middlesex Opportunity Council, 7 Bishop St., Framingham | Livestream

11:00 | Disability Policy Consortium and the Arc of Massachusetts hold a legislative briefing looking at ways to protect the U.S. Supreme Court's Olmstead v. L.C. decision that found unjustified institutionalization of people with disabilities is considered discrimination and violates the Americans with Disabilities Act. The briefing will also assess shifting federal guidance on the topic and the status of community-based infrastructure | Room 428

12:00 | House and Senate meet in a joint session. There are three constitutional amendments on the calendar: S 11, filed by Sen. Comerford, relative to agricultural and horticultural lands; S 12, filed by Sen. Tarr, capping the state income tax at 6.25%; and S 13, also filed by Sen. Tarr, requiring a supermajority vote for the use of rainy day funds. Senate Democrats who preside over the constitutional convention have shown no interest in taking up pending amendments this session. House convenes beforehand at 11:45 a.m. | House Chamber

12:30 | Candidate for governor Mike Minogue takes a walking tour of Boston's North End to meet residents and business owners, stopping at various eateries and the Post Gazette newspaper office | Starting on Commercial Street and continuing to Hanover and Prince streets

1:00 | Massachusetts Center for the Book honors winners of the 2026 Massachusetts Book Awards, including Cambridge author Jill Lepore and Boston novelist Stuart Nadler | Great Hall

2:00 | Gov. Healey, Congressman Auchincloss, state transportation officials and local lawmakers join a ribbon cutting to celebrate the completion of Route 79/ Davol Street Corridor Improvements in Fall River | 90 Hathaway St., Fall River

2:00 | Workers at the RegalCare Wakefield nursing home picket in protest over what their union, 1199SEIU, describes as "severe understaffing" | 1 Bathol St., Wakefield

5:00 | Gov. Healey holds a campaign rally alongside U.S. Sen. Markey and Attorney General Campbell | New Bedford, contact [email protected] for precise location

5:50 | Senate President Spilka receives the 2026 Peacemaker Award from the Community Dispute Settlement Center and participates in a fireside chat | Virtual

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SHERIFFS SAY: A bipartisan group of 12 sheriffs wrote to Gov. Healey, flagging what they call an unintended consequence of the PROTECT Act she signed this summer to limit federal immigration enforcement activities in Massachusetts, and her challenger Mike Minogue highlighted their concerns in a Beacon Hill press conference. Meanwhile, the state's 12 Democratic sheriffs (including 10 who signed the letter) endorsed Healey's reelection bid, and the governor says she'll keep talking with sheriffs about the law. | State House News Service (gift link)

MAIL CALL: Secretary of State Bill Galvin says any voters who have yet to send their mail-in ballots should instead hand-deliver them to drop boxes or local election offices this close to Election Day. | Gloucester Times

CAUGHT OFF BASE: A pair of lawsuits, set for a hearing today in Suffolk Superior Court, seek a third year of rental assistance through the HomeBASE program for families struggling to pay for housing. The state's housing office says it paused approvals for a third year of aid to help as many families as possible with available resources. | GBH News

WHAT'S NEXT: Election Day won't necessarily be the end of the road for some ballot fights, with lawmakers able to change voter-approved laws like they did with a rewrite of the 2016 marijuana legalization question. | WBUR

ORDER UP: Boston Mayor Wu laid out proposals aimed at making it quicker, easier and less expensive to open restaurants in the city, while also announcing former Cannabis Control Commission member Ava Callender Concepcion as the new executive director of her office of Consumer Affairs and Licensing and chair of the Boston Licensing Board. | Boston Herald

COUNTY DOWN: A non-binding ballot question in Braintree, Foxboro and Norfolk asks voters if they want to abolish Norfolk County government, which oversees the Norfolk County Agricultural High School and owns courthouses. Six county goverenments still exist across the state, and the Dedham man who got the measure on the ballot says they're outdated. | CBS Boston

TACHE TALK: Joe Tache, a 31-year-old community organizer running for Senate as a Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate, wants to make the top 100 corporations publicly owned, saying many societal problems stem from orienting the political and economic systems around the "interests of capitalist billionaires." | Boston 25

SPENDING SPREE: ICE has agreed to spend more than $70 million with 27 Massachusetts vendors since the start of President Trump's second term, with the largest, $25 million contract going to Plymouth's BI2 Technologies for a facial recognition phone app. | Boston Globe

SPONSORED How to Choose the Right Contractor for Your Home Energy Project: Whether you’re planning a major upgrade or a smaller project, the right contractor can help you understand your options, navigate technical decisions, and ensure the work supports your long-term comfort and energy efficiency goals. | Learn more

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