New report says tax refund ballot question could create costly problems for Beacon Hill

To stop skyrocketing energy costs, MA needs battery storage.

The term “62F” was not widely known on Beacon Hill before the summer of 2022.

And aside from people who could recall it from the Massachusetts tax battles of the 1980s, why would it be? Essentially an automatic-refund rule that returns money to taxpayers after high revenue growth, the refunds have happened only twice: The first time was not long after it passed into law through a 1986 ballot initiative. The second was in fall 2022, as the economy came out of the Covid pandemic.

The late July headline in CommonWealth Magazine that year somewhat understated the hand grenade that rolled to the feet the State House’s bean-counters: “Long-forgotten tax cap about to be triggered.”

The news caught Beacon Hill by surprise and helped deep-six tax break talks that were separately underway with Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration. Due to the law, eligible taxpayers ended up receiving a refund of 14 percent of their state personal income tax liability for the 2021 tax year, which totaled $3 billion overall. Revenue officials are now required to submit monthly reports to lawmakers on where things stand on Chapter 62F.

The business-backed Mass. High Tech Council, one of the groups behind the 1986 ballot initiative, is now looking to increase the number of refunds, pushing a new 62F-related ballot question. (They’re also behind a proposed ballot question to cut the state income tax.)

But Tufts University’s Evan Horowitz is raising concerns in his analysis of the latest 62F proposal, saying there are “the risky staccato effect of the new rules, and their potential interaction” with the income tax ballot question.

The ballot question, if approved by voters, would “dramatically increase the frequency and scale of 62F refunds, triggering 3-5 times as many refunds and returning 5-15 times as much money to taxpayers,” his analysis adds.

“It’s guaranteed to go off in both good times and bad times under the current structure” of the ballot question, Horowitz said in an interview.

In one alternative history, as Horowitz put it, the state would have hit the 62F trigger 22 times over the last 39 years, and sent back $30 billion in taxpayer refunds. 

That may not be a bad thing, proponents might say. In rolling out the two ballot questions last year, the head of the conservative-leaning Pioneer Institute, Jim Stergios, said, “These are practical steps to bring relief to Massachusetts families, workers and businesses. We are watching talent and capital steadily leave the state, as the state budget has ballooned far beyond growth in the income of Massachusetts households.”

Horowitz’s analysis pointed to one reason for the rarity of refunds: Massachusetts has actually cut its tax rates. But by upping the size and frequency of 62F refunds, the state will put “downward pressure” on revenues. “The ballot question has a timing problem that creates a risky feedback loop in the tax system, encouraging refunds every other year and triggering 62F in periods of weak revenue growth,” Horowitz wrote.

Lawmakers will get their say on the question next week, though they haven’t held back in voicing their displeasure with the various other initiatives headed toward the November ballot. A hearing on the 62F question and the income tax ballot question is set for Monday at 1 p.m.

Albert Einstein once said of filing tax returns, “This is too difficult for a mathematician. It takes a philosopher.” I’ll keep that in mind when I see my tax accountant on Friday. Meanwhile, if you’re planning to testify Monday, feel free to send along your testimony here: [email protected].

To stop skyrocketing energy costs, MA needs battery storage.

8:45 | MassBio holds the State of Possible Conference, bringing together biotech executives, innovators and policymakers. House Ways and Means Chair Aaron Michlewitz will receive an award at 10:25 a.m., and Gov. Maura Healey delivers remarks at 10:45 a.m. A panel discussion at 10:55 a.m. on the state's life science ecosystem includes Healey, Flagship Pioneering CEO Noubar Afeyan, MassBio CEO Kendalle Burlin O'Connell and Biogen CEO Christopher Viehbacher. | Omni Boston Seaport, 450 Summer St., Boston | More Info and Register

10:00 | The MBTA Board of Directors holds a hybrid meeting. | State Transportation Building, 2nd Floor, 10 Park Plaza, Boston | Agenda

10:30 | Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Superintendent Mary Skipper, and tech entrepreneur Paul English announce "major public-private partnership that positions Boston to be the first major U.S. city to ensure all Boston Public School students graduate with AI proficiency." | Eliot K-8 Innovation Upper School, 585 Commercial Street #3, North End

4:00 | Gov. Maura Healey attends Road to 26 Brazil-France International Friendly Game. | Gillette Stadium, 1 Patriot Place, Foxborough

4:10 | Boston Red Sox open the 2026 season against the Cincinnati Reds. | Great American Ball Park, 100 Joe Nuxhall Way, Cincinnati, OH

6:00 | The Massachusetts Democratic Party hosts its annual Roosevelt Dinner Awards and fundraiser. The party will posthumously honor Rep. Ann-Margaret Ferrante and former Newton Mayor Setti Warren with the Roosevelt Award. Senate President Karen Spilka and attorney Beth Boland will also receive the award. The party's annual activist award will go to Minnah Sheikh, chair of the Revere Democratic City Committee and associate at Dewey Square Group, and the "Lion of Labor" award will be presented to American Federation of Teachers Massachusetts President Jessica Tang. | Omni Parker Hotel, Boston

7:00 | Auditor Diana DiZoglio attends Braintree State of the City. | Braintree Town Hall, 1 John F Kennedy Memorial Dr, Braintree

Jobs continue below the fold — post a job

The MassGOP has brought on Vincent Errichetti to handle communications for the state party. He’s also handling press for John Deaton’s U.S. Senate campaign. Errichetti, who has run his own digital marketing agency, also worked as vice president of marketing and social media at the Phantom Gourmet and as a radio personality for 1510 WMEX Radio in Quincy, according to his LinkedIn.

Marvin Mathelier is the new assistant undersecretary for shelter systems under the Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities. The job involves overseeing the state’s emergency assistance family shelter system. He previously ran for Boston City Council at-large in 2025 and worked in the Healey administration’s veterans services secretariat. As a Marine Corps officer, he has served in Afghanistan. 

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is headlining a springtime fundraiser for East Boston CouncilorGabriela Coletta Zapata. The fundraiser is set for Monday, April 6, at the Kelley Square Pub.

ICE RESTRICTION BILL: House lawmakers voted 134-21 on a bill banning warrantless civil immigration arrests in courthouses. The bill now heads to the Senate, whose members have indicated they may make their own additions to the legislation. – WBUR

WORLD CUP SAFETY: Gov. Maura Healey touted the safety and security efforts behind the scenes of the World Cup matches set for this summer after touring the State Police’s Commonwealth Fusion Center in Framingham. “We’re no strangers to major events, and we know what it takes,” she said. – GBH News

BOTTLE DEPOSIT: Advocates of bottle deposit reform – doubling the refund rate to 10 cents from 5 cents – say Polar Beverages has influence over state lawmakers and has blocked their efforts. The company brushed off the claims. – CommonWealth Beacon

HAMPDEN SHERIFF CUTS: Hampden County Sheriff Nicholas Cocchi announced job cuts and said traffic details, patrols in small towns and substance abuse outreach are in jeopardy after the agency faces overspending allegations. – MassLive

HEALTH COSTS DEAL: The Wu administration has an agreement with city unions to deal with rising health costs by limiting GLP-1 drug coverage for weight loss. The agreement will save the city around $10.6 million. – Boston Herald

POPULATION GROWTH: 2025 was Greater Boston’s slowest year of population growth since the end of the pandemic, with an outmigration level outpaced only by NYC, LA, Miami, Chicago and San Francisco. Slower international immigration levels also contributed to the slower population growth. – Boston Business Journal

SOUTH COAST RAIL: One year after the South Coast commuter rail extension down to New Bedford, business owners say they’re not seeing a boost in visitors or spending. But Derek Santos, executive director of the New Bedford Economic Development Council stressed patience, saying, “We’re just starting.” – New Bedford Light

STATE POLICE SCANDAL: The State Police engaged in a “deliberate cover-up” to protect a sergeant who was involved in a 2023 on-duty crash that killed a disabled passenger, an attorney for the person’s estate says. – Boston Herald

SCHOOL BUDGET CUTS: Hundreds of Boston Public Schools positions are set to be cut after the school committee unanimously okayed a $1.7 billion budget last night. – Boston Globe

BOOZE BAN BLOCKED: Boston councilors voted to reject a non-binding resolution from colleagues Ed Flynn and Julia Mejia to ban alcohol sales at Boston Public Schools facilities, a measure aimed at the Wu administration’s White Stadium project. – Universal Hub

WESTERN CRANES: Unions are looking to the courthouse in Springfield and the higher education sector to keep their members working as a construction slowdown hits Boston. – MassLive

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Boston City Hall planners were told to cancel meetings with MBTA

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