Keller on the uphill climb to sway independents

Shortly after the polls closed on primary night, we dialed up the two state major-party chairs for some fresh hot general-election spin. 

“Massachusetts is not a place for Donald Trump and for his values and what his type of leadership is going to bring,” said Democratic Chair Steve Kerrigan. “What you saw tonight was the completion of the total takeover by Donald Trump and the MAGA movement of the Massachusetts Republican Party. We look forward to putting Maura Healey and Kim Driscoll's record for the last four years up against what Donald Trump has been spewing in Washington and what Mike Minogue has been talking about.”

For GOP Chair Amy Carnevale, the election will be about “the issue of affordability and what it means to be a resident of Massachusetts, struggling to make your ends meet, struggling to pay your electricity bills, hoping your kids can afford to stay here when they graduate college, and those are all issues that Mike Minogue will be talking about headed into the November election. The residents are feeling that affordability crisis, and Donald Trump is a sideshow that is talked about by the Democrats to distract people from Maura Healey's record as governor over the last four years.”

No surprises there, or in the primary results beyond the usual thimble-full of upsets. But if there is to be a November surprise here in incumbent heaven, it will come at the hands of the 600-pound gorilla of Massachusetts politics, the independents, now up to a whopping 67% of the electorate.

History suggests a Republican statewide candidate has to win about 60% of them to prevail. According to the most recent survey (from June) of the unenrolled by Dave Paleologos at the Suffolk University Political Research Center, the local polling gold standard, that means John Deaton and Minogue will have to nearly double their current independent pull. 

How can they do it? 

For Minogue, Carnevale’s strategy of waving off the Trump factor as a “sideshow” to Healey’s alleged incompetence seems problematic. The Suffolk poll shows 68% of independents think the nation is on the wrong track; only 46% say the same of Massachusetts. Seventy-one percent of them rate the state economy good or fair, with just 23% terming it “poor.” Almost a third of them hold Healey “most responsible” for the state’s problems, but the same number blame the Legislature, opening the door to an argument she could have done more if they let her. And the 12% who finger Trump as the culprit — a number the Healey campaign will look to boost in tandem with national Democratic efforts to do the same — narrows the pool of independents available to the GOP. 

7:00 | Mayor Wu and Boston Superintendent Mary Skipper welcome students, families, and staff to Holland Elementary School for the first day of classes, then hold a press availability | Holland Elementary School, 85 Olney St., Dorchester

10:00 | Congressman Richard Neal joins Springfield Mayor Sarno, Isabella Brady-Prankus of The Gray House and local officials for a farewell ceremony in honor of Sister Jane Morrissey | The Gray House, 22 Sheldon Street, Springfield

10:00 | Charles River Watershed Association, Mystic River Watershed Association, Massachusetts Rivers Alliance, and Conservation Law Foundation hold a rally calling on the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority to eliminate combined sewer discharges into local rivers | Fiedler Dock, Boston | Register

11:00 | Senate meets. Agenda includes bills concerning Conway, Tewksbury, Raynham, Westfield and Dennis | Senate Chamber

11:00 | House meets in an informal session | House Chamber

11:00 | Secretary of State William Galvin unveils the 2026 Information for Voters book, which includes detailed information on the nine statewide ballot questions that voters will decide in November. The book will be mailed to all households in Massachusetts beginning Tuesday, per Galvin's office | State House Library, Third Floor

11:00 | Mayor Wu joins Archbishop Henning, Lt. Gov. Driscoll, St. Francis House, the Planning Office for Urban Affairs, MassHousing, state and local elected officials, residents, and community partners to celebrate the grand opening of 41 LaGrange Street, a new 19-story affordable housing development in downtown Boston | 41 LaGrange St, Boston

11:30 | U.S. Sen. Warren and U.S. Reps. McGovern and Pressley hold a roundtable on the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, the federal housing law enacted in 2026 that the three say will make it easier to build housing, lower costs, and bar private equity from buying single-family homes. Media are asked to RSVP to [email protected] | Community Branch YMCA, 766 Main St., Worcester

1:00 | Local Government Advisory Commission meets | Shrewsbury Public Library, 609 Main St., Shrewsbury

1:30 | Gov. Healey holds a press conference to make an announcement on data centers in Massachusetts | Room 157

3:00 | Cape Cod Bridges Advisory Group meets. Agenda includes a presentation and discussion with stakeholders | Mass Maritime Academy ballroom, 20 Tower Lane, Bourne | More Info

6:00 | Kennedy Library Forum Series features Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, a former Navy Combat pilot, and Rye Barcott, author of "Courage Can Save US: Ten Extraordinary Americans and the Fight for Our Future" | JFK Presidential Library and Museum, Columbia Point | Livestream

6:00 | Congresswoman Katherine Clark is the featured speaker at a town hall about how federal decisions are affecting research, public health, innovation and the scientific workforce, hosted by Cambridge-based Union of Concerned Scientists | Robbins Memorial Town Hall, 730 Mass. Ave., Arlington | Register

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Housing and Human Services Policy Analyst, Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center

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DOWN FOR THE RECOUNT: A district-wide recount is set for this week in the contest between Sen. William Brownsberger and Daniel Lander. The latest tally shows Brownsberger up by 34 votes. | Belmont Voice

BACK TO SCROLL: As the new school year starts, a cellphone ban bill is still mired in closed-door conference committee talks. Districts could have to scramble to implement new policies if a deal emerges mid-year. | Boston Globe

WHAT A WAY TO MAKE A LIVING: A recently filed bill from Provincetown Sen. Julian Cyr and Boston Rep. Sam Montaño would designate Sept. 25 as "9 to 5 Day" in honor of Dolly Parton. | State House News Service (gift link)

BALLOT BALKS: A study from the Pioneer Institute recommends earlier judicial review to catch constitutional problems in proposed ballot questions, plus more time for signature-gathering. | Boston Herald

OFFLINE: Springfield's schools are closed today as staff work to address a "cyber incident" that took down phones, email and some access to curriculum and records. The district is uncertain if the problems came from an electronic failure or if its systems were hacked. Everett City Hall is also closed because of a cybersecurity incident. | The Republican | WHDH

FARE WEATHER: Some of the new fare gates at South Station are covered up and out of service on rainy or snowy days as officials work on a weatherproofing solution. | WBUR

CRUZ’S CALL: After the Lindsay Clancy case ended in a mistrial, Plymouth District Attorney Timothy Cruz says he'll make a decision soon about what comes next. In a district that spans blue-collar cities and well-off coastal enclaves, the state's only Republican DA has earned a reputation as a hard-nosed prosecutor. | New York Times

RECRUITS RETURN: An independent agency will be monitoring reforms at the Massachusetts State Police training academy when the new class of recruits starts next month. The start of this year's class was delayed so the agency could implement some of the reforms recommended after the 2024 death of Enrique Delgado-Garcia. | CBS Boston

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Assistant Environmental Planner, City of Newton

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Director of Centralized Project Development, University of Massachusetts Amherst Donahue Institute

Hellman and Simons Fellow for Science, Engineering, & Technology, American Academy of Arts & Sciences

Enforcement Counsel, Mass Gaming Commission

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