Ah, 1990 in Massachusetts. Inside Out at The Rat, the Mighty Mighty Bosstones at T.T. The Bear’s. Drinks at Biba, if you could get in. Nelson Mandela drawing 300,000 at the Hatch Shell. Sox in the ALCS, Bruins in the Stanley Cup final.
Good times!
And the last time Massachusetts politics was even remotely competitive.
Believe it or not, Republican presidential candidacies once mattered here. Richard Nixon came within single digits of George McGovern in 1972, the year we were “the one and only” state the Democrats carried (a fact you can still see boasted about on faded bumper stickers adorning ancient VW vans). Ronald Reagan actually carried Massachusetts in 1980 and 1984.
Since then, the Democratic nominee has won here by an average of 29 points.
On Beacon Hill, 1990 was the high-water mark of the modern era for Republican legislative candidates. One quarter of the Democratic incumbents in the Senate were ousted, 6% in the House (the most since 1968). And Bill Weld became the first of four Republicans elected governor over the next 28 years, beating another change-agent, Trump precursor John Silber, who torched the Democratic hierarchy in the primary.
In 1990, the voters were pissed, with good reason. The Massachusetts Miracle had jumped the shark, amid a miasma of dishonest establishment spin to the contrary. The end of the state’s boom times on top of a national recession imploded tax receipts, property values and bond ratings. And Gov. Michael Dukakis’s approval ratings evaporated along with his claims of “competence,” plummeting from 79% at the height of his 1988 presidential run to under 20% in 1990.
So they threw the bums out. And 36 years later, every challenger with an incumbent bum in their sights is wondering: Could this be 1990 all over again?
We gave up trying to read the minds of hundreds of thousands of voters years ago; the psychic toll was too much, and the extra thoughts you scoop up in that type of harvest can be … let’s just say some of you people need to wash your minds out with soap. But it seems safe to say no, this is not 1990, and not just because Biba, The Rat and T.T.s are long gone and haven’t been replaced.
Tax receipts have been erratic, but have declined year-to-year only twice in the past ten fiscal years, one of those during COVID. Getting into the housing market has been an ever-worsening nightmare, but if you’re already there these have been boom times with massive increases in property values.
The state’s General Obligation bond rating in 1990 was Baa, worst in the nation. Today, it’s AA+. And in spite of all our woes and her occasional stumbles, Gov. Maura Healey consistently posts solid job approval and huge leads over her potential GOP challengers.
The law of averages suggests an incumbent at some level will be shown the door on Tuesday and/or Nov. 3. Maybe even more than one.
But another anti-insider wave in what may be the nation’s safest harbor for incumbents?
You can bet on anything these days, but don’t bet on that.
