The primary between Sen. Ed Markey and his Democratic challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton, has been somewhat of a sleepy affair, apart from jabs over progressive values and the involvement of “dark money” groups.
Leave it to Emerson College’s polling unit to toss a firecracker under their feet four months before voters go to polls, and weeks before Democratic insiders head to Worcester for their state convention on May 30. Emerson released a survey this morning that shows Markey with just a five-point lead over Moulton.
The poll has Markey receiving 37% to Moulton’s 32%, with 29% undecided. Two other candidates, Alexander Rikleen and William Gates, each received 1% or less.
Other polls, from Suffolk University/Boston Globe and the University of New Hampshire, in recent months have shown double-digit leads for Markey. For example, the UNH poll had Markey leading Moulton 46% to 33% in April. More polling in the next few months, coupled with how delegates vote at the convention, could provide a sense of whether the Emerson poll is a trend of tightening or an outlier.
“Senator Markey leads the Democratic primary by 13 points among registered Democrats, while Rep. Moulton holds a 38% to 32% edge among unenrolled voters,” Spencer Kimball, the Emerson polling unit’s executive director, said in a statement. “Markey leads women 37% to 29%, while men are essentially split, with 38% backing Moulton and 37% Markey.”
The poll also tested the favorability of the state’s top elected officials among Massachusetts voters, beyond just those weighing in on a Democratic primary, finding that none cracked 50%.
Gov. Maura Healey had a 45% favorable rating among Massachusetts voters. Thirty-five percent gave her an unfavorable rating, and 17% said they were neutral.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who was reelected in 2024, has a 48% favorable rating, 35% unfavorable, and 14% neutral. Michelle Wu, who handily won reelection as Boston’s mayor in 2025, garnered a 45% favorable rating, as 34% gave her an unfavorable rating and 16% expressed a neutral stance.
The poll also showed Markey, who turns 80 this year, with a 37% favorable rating, coupled with a 35% unfavorable rating, and 23% were neutral. Moulton, 47, came in at 31% favorable and 26% unfavorable.
The survey, conducted on May 3 and May 4, also asked about a few of the many ballot questions headed towards voters in November. On the decrease in the state income tax rate to 4% from 5%, 62% of voters said they’d vote yes, 19% said no, and 20% weren’t sure how they’d vote.
Another hot-button ballot question, one that would bring back rent control, received 61% in support, 26% in opposition and 14% said they weren’t sure.
Fifty percent of voters said they were interested in switching from a party primary system to an all-party system, where all candidates would be on the same ballot regardless of party. The top two candidates would advance to the final election.
Twenty-nine percent said they’d vote no, and 21% were not sure how they’d vote.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Massachusetts voters, with the sample size of likely Democratic primary voters coming in at 451. The sample size has a credibility interval, which is similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 4.5%. The credibility interval for the entire sample size of 1,000 is 3%.
The survey came days after the formation of a ballot committee in opposition to the primary system, chaired by Jordan Berg Powers, a Worcester-based consultant who previously served as executive director of the progressive advocacy group Mass Alliance.
The Coalition for a Healthy Democracy is behind the question and has the backing of former Democratic candidate for governor Danielle Allen, former MassGOP chair Jennifer Nassour and Auditor Diana DiZoglio.
What’s your take on the poll? Signs of a tighter race as the weeks ago by? Send along your thoughts: [email protected].
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HAPPENING TODAY
7:30 | The mayors of Easthampton (Salem Derby), West Springfield (Will Reichelt), Holyoke (Joshua Garcia), Agawam (Christopher Johnson), Chicopee (John Vieau) and Westfield (Mike McCabe) discuss initiatives shaping their region and challenges ahead in a forum hosted by the Springfield Regional Chamber. | Marriott Springfield Downtown, 2 Boland Way, Springfield | Register
8:00 | State House News Service and MASSterList host panels as part of an event dubbed "The AI Revolution in MA: Disruption, Risk, Opportunity." Lawmakers have drafted and passed bills addressing several artificial intelligence-related issues including election misinformation and data privacy, and AI is seeping into myriad business and policy conversations and practices. Gary Blank, the Pioneer Institute's senior fellow for government effectiveness, gives an opening presentation. | MCLE Conference Center, 10 Winter Place, Boston | Register
8:00 | Attorney General Andrea Campbell gives remarks at the Anti-Defamation League’s New England Law and Ed Day breakfast. | 161 Elliott St., Danvers
10:30 | Sen. Sal DiDomenico hosts a press conference with Harlem Children's Zone President Geoffrey Canda on anti-poverty legislation dubbed the ENOUGH Act (S 3022 / H 5187). It would create a new fund, with money flowing to the "most distressed neighborhoods" with the aim of reducing poverty, expanding opportunity for low-income individuals, and increasing community health, education and jobs. Other attendees include House sponsors Reps. Kate Lipper-Garabedian and Antonio Cabral and former Education Secretary Paul Reville. The bills have a hearing Thursday before the Joint Committee on Community Development and Small Business. | Room 222, State House, Boston
11:15 | Senate President Karen Spilka, Sen. Cindy Friedman, members of the Steering and Policy Committee, members of the Massachusetts Black and Latino Caucus, and advocates will hold a press conference ahead of the Senate’s debate on the immigration-related PROTECT Act. | Senate Reading Room, State House, Boston
11:30 | Auditor Diana DiZoglio joins GBH Radio for a live interview. | GBHNews.org
11:30 | Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll gives the keynote address at the Associated Industries of Massachusetts 2026 Annual Meeting. | Hilton Boston Park Plaza, 50 Park Plaza, Boston
AROUND TOWN: IMMIGRATION MEETING, GOP DRAMA, HEALEY ON BARNEY FRANK
Top business leaders privately met Wednesday with Gov. Maura Healey at the State House, with immigration as the top topic. The meeting was chaired by developer Tom O’Brien and Eva Millona, a former president and CEO of the Mass. Immigrant and Refugee Advocacy Coalition (MIRA) who joined Eastern Bank Foundation last year. The meeting drew Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll; Anne Klibanski, president and CEO of Mass General Brigham, the state’s largest private employer; Mass. Competitive Partnership CEO Jay Ash; and JD Chesloff, head of the Mass. Business Roundtable, among others. Healey said on her way out that business leaders organized the meeting to discuss the Trump administration’s anti-immigration moves. “Immigration is important to our economy. It's important to our workforce,” she said. “It's been that way in Massachusetts for hundreds of years. And I can, I can tell you, speaking to other governors, Democrat and Republican, immigration is important to their workforce and their state economies as well.”
Longtime GOP consultant Holly Robichaud has left Republican candidate for treasurer Elizabeth Dionne’s campaign. The move comes after Dionne put out a statement Wednesday endorsing GOP candidate for governor Mike Minogue and calling on primary challenger Brian Shortsleeve to withdraw. (Shortsleeve is a Robichaud client.) “We appreciate all that she’s done for Elizabeth,” said Alex Hagerty, who is working on Dionne’s campaign. Robichaud declined comment. The state’s Republican establishment has started to coalesce around Minogue, the medical device executive, and pressure Shortsleeve after Minogue won 70% of delegates at the state GOP convention. Shortsleeve has pushed back, contrasting the small number of insiders at the convention with the hundreds of thousands of voters who are expected to go to the polls in the Sept. 1 primary.
Barney Frank, the former Mass. politician and first member of Congress to come out as gay, is in hospice care in Maine and recently announced a book “repudiating his party’s left flank,” as Politico put it. Count Gov. Maura Healey as someone looking forward to reading it. “He's been a personal role model to me,” Healey, the state’s first openly gay governor, told reporters. She said she had a “good conversation” with him the other day. “I just told him how much I love him and how grateful I am to him, and I continue to be, for being the kind of leader that he's been, not just to folks in Massachusetts, but for this country.” As for the book, “I think that you know, what he's driving at is something that I believe in, too,” she said. “Those of us in office or seeking to hold office have got to focus on solving people's problems, dealing with the issues that are most core to what people care about now: housing, groceries…gas and electric bills, do I have access to health care, can my kids go to school, is there going to be more opportunity for them down the road than there was for me. This is the work of government and I think that is Barney’s message.”
FROM BEACON HILL
DiZOGLIO VS. CAMPBELL: Members of the Supreme Judicial Court suggested a deadline should be set in the debate over a legislative audit pushed by Auditor Diana DiZoglio. The auditor has accused Attorney General Andrea Campbell of slowing and blocking the audit. “You’re both battling each other to exhaustion, and we’re going nowhere,” Justice Scott Kafker said as Assistant Attorney General Anne Sterman stood before him. – CommonWealth Beacon
STIPEND REFORM: Attorney General Andrea Campbell’s office sent a letter to Secretary of State William Galvin saying a stipend reform ballot question shouldn’t proceed after a Supreme Judicial Court advisory opinion raised constitutionality questions. It’s a reversal for Campbell, who initially certified the petition. The latest move enraged backers, who vowed to renew their efforts for the 2028 ballot. – State House News Service
LIFTING LIMITS: Watertown Rep. John Lawn says lawmakers should remove the statute of limitations for survivors of child sexual abuse, saying the law is outdated. “For many, these restrictive timelines perpetuate silence and deny the right to be heard,” he writes. “I know because it happened to me.” – Boston Globe
QUINCY STATUES: The Supreme Judicial Court showed skepticism towards both sides in the dispute over Quincy Mayor Tom Koch’s push to install statues of two Catholic saints on the front of a new public safety building. One justice even wondered if the saints could be compared to a sports mascot like Gritty of the Philadelphia Flyers. – WBUR
NEWS NEXT DOOR
IN WITH THE YOUNG: Along with approving a tax override, Brookline voters chose four relative newcomers to local politics over town government veterans. Turnout hit 34%, the highest in recent history. – Brookline.News
WELLESLEY VOTE: Wellesley residents will vote in Town Meeting next week on whether they should sue the state over plans for a 180-unit development. The non-binding question asks whether to sue, or negotiate over the development, which is slated for a state-owned site. – Boston Business Journal
MARBLEHEAD GOES VIRAL: Marblehead resident David Modica went viral on the internet after comments at Town Meeting on local officials’ efforts to avoid compliance with the MBTA Communities Act. “We’re not talking about skyscrapers,” he said afterwards. “We’re talking about townhouses. Three stories. – Marblehead Independent
LATE NIGHT T: Some attendees of the June 13 World Cup match who are taking the commuter rail train may not be back in Boston until 4 a.m. the following day. T officials say the four subway lines and some bus routes will run until 4 a.m. as a result. – MassLive
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