As Election Day comes into focus, a few data points merit some attention

There is essentially a month until the 2026 elections, when Bay Staters will pick their governor for the next four years, a U.S. senator for the next six, their state legislators for the next two, and decide at least nine policy ballot questions.

Voting is about to begin -- "people are starting to get their ballots actually in the mail," the governor said this week -- so before the final push, here's a by-the-numbers look at some of the issues voters are weighing:

Many voters will cast their ballots sooner, either through the mail at their convenience or during early, in-person voting that starts Oct. 17. That leaves candidates and campaigns even less time to make their case while the number of uncast ballots shrinks. Polls will close at 8 p.m. on Nov. 3.

Overall support for the Republican gubernatorial nominee increased eight percentage points between August and September (from 30% to 38%) while support for incumbent Democrat Maura Healey remained unchanged at 54%.

Looking beneath the surface reveals a more interesting dynamic: Healey's support among Democrats slid from 90% to 84% between polls while she gained ground among the large pool of independents (from 41% to 54%). Minogue benefited from a post-primary consolidation of GOP support (100% in September versus 83% in August) and a tenfold increase from a tiny base in support from Democrats, albeit among small samples.

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Bay State drivers would get $120 million in "relief" under the governor's plan, which she proposed after Minogue already blanketed airwaves with ads touting his plan to forgo collection of the 24-cent-a-gallon state gas tax while pump prices remain high.

Healey's $2.24 billion fiscal 2026 closeout supplemental budget is nearly certain to pass in some form this fall (Comptroller William McNamara would prefer that it already be done), but it appears far less certain that the gas tax holiday idea will be part of it when it does.

"I think we've taken votes on this conversation in the past ... obviously those votes were pretty significantly against previously," House Ways and Means Chairman Aaron Michlewitz said Thursday when asked about the proposal the governor put forward a week earlier. He added, "I don't want to speculate yet until we do our due diligence ... But I think there's certainly been skepticism on doing these types of initiatives in the past."

Reminder: The House voted 132-25 on April 27 to reject a Rep. Nicholas Boldyga budget amendment calling for the gas tax to be suspended until the average retail price of regular gas in Massachusetts falls below $2.50 a gallon.

In some ways, Michlewitz's hesitancy gives Healey an easy out when Minogue inevitably brings up inaction on the new gas tax relief plan in next Thursday night's gubernatorial debate. The incumbent can reiterate her support for the idea while passing the blame for it not happening yet to a Legislature that has very little goodwill with voters at the moment. That could further complicate her relationship with the Legislature if voters return her for a second term.

"What we're seeing with these incredible medications is that they actually save lives, and that they treat so many comorbidities that are underlying the issue of obesity," Rep. Marjorie Decker said this week during a briefing with Martin Luther King III. "And we walked away because we didn't treat it as a healthcare issue. We treated it as a place to go and actually save money. It became a financial issue. And when the bean counters start driving healthcare policies, equity will never be baked in. And that's what happened here."

The $120 million price tag for gas tax relief and the $120 million cut at the GIC were coincidental, but they illustrate the juggling act that state government is trying to keep up. Residents need relief from unrelenting cost pressures (and providing it has long been viewed as politically beneficial for incumbents), but the state also has to manage its own rising costs. Someone's got to pay for it all, somehow.

Investigators identified more than $6 million in MassHealth fraud and about $3.9 million in SNAP fraud, DiZoglio said. The latest announcement comes on top of almost $4.5 million in public benefit fraud identified in the first half of fiscal 2026 and nearly $12 million throughout fiscal 2025.

The new numbers landed amid a federal government crackdown on public benefit fraud and new program eligibility and work requirements that have state administrators trying to both shore up program integrity and maintain access for vulnerable residents. State government watchdogs say fraud is not as widespread in MassHealth or SNAP as has been portrayed, while federal officials (and state-level Republican candidates) assert that major savings are possible by stamping out fraud.

The Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities's housing production tracker shows that Massachusetts added 34,561 homes in 2025, but Secretary Juana Matias this week didn't have an answer as to how many units have been built so far in 2026.

"We want to stay at par with what we saw in 2025, we don't want to lose momentum. And so that's the north star, right? When you've had such a great year, how do you keep that going moving forward?" Matias, a former state lawmaker and federal administrator, said this week.

In prepared remarks to developers at a Commercial Real Estate Development Association event, the secretary made clear that the state's chronic housing crisis will not be abated quickly. The state's production tracker will be updated annually, her office said.

"I want to be straight with all of you. This work is going to take time," she said. "We have to look at Austin, Texas. Over 10 years, Austin added more than 120,000 homes. After that sustained growth, rent stabilized, and in some places, came down."

The additional water is intended to support "multiple communities seeking admission to the MWRA system," the agency wrote in a document this February. Water infrastructure remains one of the hurdles to greater housing production in some parts of the state. 

But Quabbin watershed residents and area lawmakers this week argued the proposal represents another wrinkle in a generational fight for equity between a region of the state that was flooded to create the Quabbin and still protects it, and the eastern part of the state that benefits from the clean Quabbin drinking water.

"As a hydrologist, one of the first things you learn is what? Water flows downhill," Belchertown Conservation Commission member Steve Garabedian said. "Well, the other axiom is that water flows towards money."

KELLER AT LARGE: 8:30 a.m., WBZ-TV. Political analyst Jon Keller’s guest is Republican nominee for U.S. Senate John Deaton, who discusses the differences between him and incumbent Ed Markey, and his positions on the war with Iran and health care reform.

@ ISSUE: 9:30 a.m., NBC 10. Reporter Matt Prichard looks at the race for state treasurer, featuring conversations with incumbent Democrat Deb Goldberg and Republican challenger Elizabeth Dionne.

ON THE RECORD: 11 a.m., WCVB. NewsCenter 5’s Ed Harding and Sharman Sacchetti sit down with Gov. Maura Healey. Democratic political analyst Mary Anne Marsh and Republican political analyst Ginny Buckingham join for a roundtable discussion.

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