Budgeting in the dark

There’s a small block inside the office of Matt Gorzkowicz that says: “KEEP CALM & BUDGET ON.”

Gov. Maura Healey’s unflappable budget chief doesn’t need the reminder this year, but it’s good to have on hand anyway. He joined Healey on Wednesday in rolling out a fiscal 2027 budget with a bottom line of $63.4 billion. Whether the final version of the budget is above or below that number will depend on multiple things both in and out of their control.

“I can’t control inflation. I can’t control tariffs,” Healey said.

If the bottom line holds, it’ll be lower than the final spending total for fiscal year 2025, which hit $64.02 billion by the end, well above the $57.7 billion fiscal 2025 budget signed by Healey. (Spoiler alert: It won’t hold.)

Fiscal year 2026 is still in progress and was $60.9 billion at the time it was enacted, according to an analysis by my colleagues at State House News Service.

Supplemental spending bills now often follow the state budget signed with fanfare in July. A fiscal 2026 supplemental budget is already on the way, funding $415 million for “time-sensitive” needs, most of it for the Group Insurance Commission, and a proposed restriction on the circumstances that another state’s National Guard can enter Massachusetts.

Gorzkowicz, whose top challenge is rising health care costs, was diplomatic in voicing apprehension over what’s to come, particularly from a Trump administration that has expressed hostility towards blue states. “Volatility,” he called it.

Healey, who is up for reelection this year, was more forceful. The Trump administration has “taken a hatchet” to federal funding in the state budget, to the tune of $3.7 billion, she said.

“At the same time the president and Congress have made these significant cuts to states around the country, the president continued to double down on tariffs which have been driving the cost of everything up,” she added, saying President Trump was “imposing them on a whim.”

Healey administration officials say the fiscal 2027 budget proposal limits growth and spending, and does not include new taxes or fees. That’s a change from last year, when they proposed a candy tax that they insisted wasn’t a tax before it was chucked into a trash bin.

The budget also takes the long view, incorporating recommendations from a task force on fiscal practices. The recommendations call for an annual multi-year budget forecast and an economic “stress test” into the annual budget development process, a good idea if it keeps raining supplemental budgets.

As the motto in Gorzkowicz’s office says, “Keep calm and budget on.” And based on the last several cycles, budget on, and on, and on.

More budget coverage is available here from the State House News Service The answer to yesterday’s trivia question: Four House lawmakers voted against the MBTA Communities Act, which was signed into law by Gov. Charlie Baker. Want to suggest a trivia item? Send it along: gin@massterlist.com.

HAPPENING TODAY

9:00 | The Massachusetts Health and Hospital Association hosts its annual meeting. Gov. Maura Healey gives remarks at around noon. A panel discussion about “recovering” and “redefining” hospitals after the Steward Health Care bankruptcy includes Dr. Alastair Bell of Boston Medical Center Health System, John Fernandez of Brown University Health and Diana Richardson of Merrimack Health; it’s moderated by former Health and Human Services Secretary Kate Walsh. | Westin Copley Place, 10 Huntington Ave., Boston

9:00 | The Rennie Center for Education Research & Policy holds its annual “Condition of Education in the Commonwealth” event. Education Secretary Patrick Tutwiler will give remarks on the state of education and a panel will explore that topic as well. | UMass Club, One Beacon Street, Floor 32, Boston

9:00 | Gov. Maura Healey delivers her annual business address to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts. Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and cabinet members scheduled to attend. | Boston Marriott Newton Hotel, 2345 Commonwealth Avenue, Newton

10:30 | Advocacy groups hold “Day of Action” at the State House “to demand that the governor and state legislators take immediate actions to protect local communities from ICE.” The activities are sponsored by Indivisible Massachusetts Coalition, ACLU of Mass., Mass. Immigrant and Refugee Advocacy Coalition, Progressive Mass, Brazilian Worker Center, and Jewish Alliance for Law and Social Action. | Room 222, State House, Boston

11:00 | Housing for Massachusetts, the ballot committee created to oppose rent control, will kick off its campaign. Participants include Amir Shahsavari of the Small Property Owners Association; Alex Guardiola, Worcester community leader and small property owner; Helen Shiner, Interim Executive Director, Quincy Chamber of Commerce; Revere Councilor Marc Silvestri; Denise Jillson, leader of 1994 rent control repeal campaign; and Conor Yunits, chair of Housing for Massachusetts. | Church on the Hill, 140 Bowdoin Street, Boston

2:30 | Gov. Maura Healey holds a press conference on efforts to “protect Massachusetts residents from the harmful actions by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.” | Grand Staircase, State House, Boston

FROM BEACON HILL

MELTING ICE: Beacon Hill lawmakers unveiled legislation to hit back at ICE raids in the aftermath of federal immigration agents killing two American citizens. The bill seeks to place restrictions on law enforcement agents asking about someone’s immigration status, and bans civil immigration arrests in and around courthouses, including direct travel to and from court, without a judicial warrant or a court order signed by a judge. – State House News Service

ENERGY RELIEF: Utility companies operating in Massachusetts have agreed to waive all interest charges on customer rate deferrals, according to Gov. Maura Healey. The governor and state lawmakers had called on the utilities to do so earlier in the day, as news broke of possible interest charges. – Boston Herald

BATTERY STORAGE: State officials plan to scale up battery energy storage as part of its clean energy goals, but face pushback from residents who cite safety and environmental concerns. – Boston Business Journal

NEWS NEXT DOOR

SHAPIRO IN MASS.: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was in Newton to promote his book and sit with former Globe editor Marty Baron for an interview. Gov. Maura Healey attended the event and New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft sat in the audience. – Boston Globe

WORLD CUP REVENUE: Hotels are adjusting revenue expectations tied to the World Cup downward as the data so far indicates there hasn’t been much movement in bookings ahead of the Tall Ships, the America 250th celebration and the soccer matches at Gillette. – Boston Business Journal

CITY COUNCIL CHAOS: The Boston City Council met for the first time under President Liz Breadon, and it was a choppy meeting, as rules changes faced opposition and Councilor Erin Murphy, in high dudgeon, demanded an apology. – Boston Herald

REAL ID RATE: The Massachusetts compliance rate for REAL ID, a form of identification, is at 65%, leading to state transportation officials urging residents to sign up. Starting Feb. 1, travelers 18 or older who don’t have REAL ID compliant cards will be charged a $45 fee before going through security at the airport while flying domestically. – GBH News

BABSON STUDENT: Eighty members of Congress are demanding federal immigration authorities release a 19-year-old Babson College student, after ICE admitted in court to making a “mistake” during an attempt to deport her. – MassLive

MUSEUM LAYOFFS: Citing an “unsustainable deficit,” the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston has warned employees they plan layoffs. The plan is for a 6.3% reduction in its 520-employee workforce. – WBUR

OFFSHORE WIND: After its federal court win against the Trump administration, Vineyard Wind moved its final turbine tower – its 62nd – out of New Bedford’s port for installation. – New Bedford Light