Pain, but not much gain

The sound and fury resulting from the MBTA Communities Act over the last five years ranged from court fights to hollow threats of ballot initiatives and spilled into the 2026 race for governor.

For all that, the policy – a 2021 state law requiring that cities and towns zone for multifamily housing near public transit – is so far a modest success in a region known for its incrementalism on housing.

“The MBTA Communities law’s method of setting mandatory performance benchmarks for local zoning accomplished more than recent state efforts to persuade or incentivize municipalities to undertake voluntary reform,” says a new report from the Boston Foundation’s research arm. “But the MBTA Communities approach was a grueling, expensive, politically charged, half-decade effort that could not be easily ramped up or repeated iteratively to achieve the needed progress.”

The political charge is expected to carry over into this year, as Gov. Maura Healey, an Arlington Democrat whose administration fully supports the law, runs for a second four-year term. Brian Shortsleeve, one of the three GOP candidates for governor has repeatedly criticized the law and said he would repeal it, while Mike Kennealy says Healey is “weaponizing the MBTA Communities Act to impose top-down mandates.”

But while the law carries a charge, it doesn’t seem to be a third rail yet. You may get a nasty zap, but you won’t die. The vast majority – 165, to be precise – of 177 communities under the law have fallen in line, and the rebellion has been limited to a handful of places like Winthrop. Additionally, opponents of the law were unable to muster enough voter signatures for a ballot question to repeal it, while an effort in the opposite direction, to ease zoning for starter homes, is advancing towards November.

The Boston Foundation report, written by housing and zoning expert Amy Dain, bills itself as an early look at the permitting pipeline resulting from the MBTA Communities law and notes the law has a “pressure valve” that allows communities to be in compliance. Essentially that means not much new homebuilding.

A preliminary list of projects that can be largely ascribed to the law, according to the report, shows 6,804 net new units in 34 communities. “If all are built, they would amount to substantially less than a 1 percent increase in the nearly 2 million homes located within the 177 MBTA Communities.”

While Lexington, Lowell and Westford went beyond law’s zoning requirements, “most took a conservative approach,” Dain’s report noted, adding that places like Arlington, Newton and Walpole went down the middle of the road. “In its flexible design of MBTA Communities and ambiguous messaging, ‘You just have to zone, you don’t have to build,’ the Commonwealth was juggling the polarized politics of housing policy. In theory, the state has the authority to mandate dramatic local zoning reform. In practice, there’s still a local vote.”

The larger question: What is the Bay State’s “growth agenda,” Dain wrote. “MBTA Communities legalized housing at moderate densities, across quite limited areas. Small projects should be legalized across broad areas. And while high-rise housing can meet demand on less land than the missing-middle can, the region still needs to identify more areas for high-rise development. In walkable, amenity-rich centers across Greater Boston, there are still far too few properties zoned for six stories.”

Trivia time: How many House lawmakers voted against the MBTA Communities Act when it cleared the chamber? Send answers to: gin@massterlist.com.

HAPPENING TODAY

8:30 | MassBio holds its annual policy leadership breakfast. Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll gives remarks. A panel discussion with biotech CEOs John Maraganore of Alnylam Pharmaceuticals and Daphne Zohar of Seaport Therapeutics will dive into the “realities of advancing innovation amid shifting federal priorities and financing challenges,” organizers say. Sen. Sal DiDomenico and Rep. Meghan Kilcoyne are on a panel about how patient needs and scientific progress affect legislative priorities. | UMass Club, One Beacon St., Boston

10:00 | Massachusetts Families for Vaccines hosts a legislative briefing on bills from Rep. Andy Vargas and the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (H 2254 / S 1557) that would eliminate the religious exemption for immunizations that are required for students to attend public, private and charter K-12 school. | Room 428, State House, Boston

1:00 | Gov. Maura Healey holds a press conference to unveil her fiscal 2027 state budget proposal, joined by Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and Administration and Finance Secretary Matthew Gorzkowicz. | Room 157, State House, Boston

2:45 | Rep. Andy Vargas, chair of the Black and Latino Legislative Caucus, joins vice chair Sen. Liz Miranda and other members to unveil their “consensus immigration priorities, including the PROTECT Act (An Act promoting rule of law, oversight, trust, and equal constitutional treatment)” and a “shared legislative framework and priorities as the Legislature considers comprehensive immigration policy.” | Room 222, State House, Boston

3:30 | Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is in D.C. for meetings. She is scheduled to give remarks at the Bloomberg City Data Alliance Technology and Innovation panel as part of the U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting and dealing with how cities are bracing for the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence. | Marriot Marques, 901 Mass. Ave NW, Washington, D.C.

FROM BEACON HILL

VOTER ROLL LAWSUIT: The U.S. Constitution grants authority over elections to the states, but the Trump Justice Department is demanding unredacted voter files that hold driver’s license numbers and Social Security numbers from state elections officials, including in Massachusetts. The move comes as President Trump continues to falsely claim the 2020 election was stolen from him. – MassLive

LOSING STREAK: The Trump administration lost another round in court battles over offshore wind. The Vineyard Wind project received a preliminary stay from a federal judge, meaning it can ship out its last turbine. All offshore wind projects have sued the Trump administration over a suspension order, and so far the administration’s score is 0 for 4. – New Bedford Light

FROM ON HIGH: The Legislature’s power to tell cities and towns how to set their taxes goes back decades, and “decisions that most states leave up to their local leaders, here are instead made by senators or others from hundreds of miles away,” Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said. – WBUR

DRIVING CHANGE: Gov. Maura Healey is tossing into her state budget proposal a bill that would end the tying the loss of driving licenses to unpaid parking tickets, tolls or taxes. MASSterList wrote about the proposal, pushed by a coalition that includes the ACLU of Massachusetts and supported across party lines and demographics, earlier this month. – Boston Globe

NEWS NEXT DOOR

NEW CENSUS DATA: Population growth in Massachusetts has slowed amid a federal immigration crackdown, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data. People are also leaving for other states in the country. The state’s estimated population stands at 7.15 million as of the end of June, an increase of about 15,500 people from the year before. – CommonWealth Beacon

POWER SOURCE: Power plants that depend on oil were the main source of electricity in New England. Forty percent of electricity for the region came from the oil-fired plants during peak periods. – Boston Herald

WORLD CUP PREP: Hotel rates have reached $800 a night as the seven World Cup matches set to be played at Gillette Stadium, approach. – Boston Business Journal

HOLYOKE COUNCILOR’S OUI: Holyoke Councilor Israel Rivera was given probation after admitting to operating under the influence on Christmas Eve. – MassLive